DATE=10/29/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41728
TITLE=RUSSIA: WHAT WENT WRONG?
BYLINE=CHALLISS MCDONOUGH
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  RUSSIAN PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS INDICATED HIS
GOVERNMENT WILL "TAKE FIRM MEASURES" TO STRENGTHEN ITS CONTROL 
OVER RUSSIA'S STRUGGLING ECONOMY.  SUCH A SHIFT COULD AFFECT 
MOSCOW'S CHANCES OF GETTING FURTHER FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, WHICH IS CONSIDERING THE RELEASE OF 
ANOTHER INSTALLMENT IN AN AID PACKAGE FOR RUSSIA WORTH MORE THAN 
22-BILLION DOLLARS.  SOME ANALYSTS IN WASHINGTON SAY ANY MOVE 
TOWARD TIGHTER STATE ECONOMIC CONTROLS WOULD BE A FURTHER RETREAT
FROM FREE-MARKET REFORMS.  A CONSERVATIVE THINK TANK IN 
WASHINGTON SPONSORED A CONFERENCE THIS WEEK [ON THURSDAY] TO 
RE-EXAMINE U-S POLICY ON RUSSIA, AND THE TRAJECTORY OF RUSSIAN 
REFORMS.  V-O-A'S CHALLISS MCDONOUGH REPORTS.

TEXT:  THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION CALLED ITS CONFERENCE, "WHAT WENT 
WRONG IN RUSSIA?"  OFFICIALS FROM TWO U-S PRESIDENTIAL 
ADMINISTRATIONS JOINED RESEARCHERS FROM THE PUBLIC POLICY 
INSTITUTE TO TALK ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND 
RECENT SHIFTS IN THE COUNTRY'S LEADERSHIP.

FROM THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY CASPAR 
WEINBERGER ROUNDLY CRITICIZED WHAT HE CALLS THE RETURN OF 
COMMUNIST-ERA LEADERS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF BORIS YELTSIN.  HE 
SAYS FROM THE WEST'S POINT OF VIEW, PRIME MINISTER YEVGENY 
PRIMAKOV IS "THE VERY WORST POSSIBLE MAN" FOR THE JOB.  HE SAYS 
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC POLICIES HAVE INSURED THAT FOREIGN INVESTORS ARE
NOT  LIKELY TO RETURN.  BUT MR. WEINBERGER DOES  NOT  LAY ALL THE
BLAME AT THE FEET OF THE RUSSIAN LEADERS.

                     /// WEINBERGER ACT ///

         FOR THEM TO TAKE WESTERN-SUPPLIED AID -- AN ENORMOUS 
         AMOUNT -- AND USE IT TO REGAIN A MILITARY STRENGTH WHICH
         IS TOTALLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR A COUNTRY SUCH AS RUSSIA, 
         WHICH NEEDS TO SPEND ALL ITS TIME TRYING TO REGAIN ITS 
         ECONOMIC CAPABILITIES ... IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THAT IS A 
         VERY MAJOR POLICY FAILURE ON [THE PART OF] WHOEVER 
         CAUSES IT, AND IT SEEMS TO ME WE HAD A VERY LARGE AMOUNT
         TO DO WITH CAUSING IT.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. WEINBERGER AND OTHER PANELISTS BLAME THE CURRENT RUSSIAN 
SITUATION IN  NO  SMALL PART ON U-S POLICIES TOWARD RUSSIA -- 
PARTICULARLY THOSE OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION.  THE PANEL 
CRITICIZED THE U-S TENDENCY TO LINK ITS FOREIGN POLICY TOO 
STRONGLY TO PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH RUSSIAN LEADERS, RATHER 
THAN SIMPLY BACKING DEMOCRATIC POLICIES OR PRINCIPLES.

HERITAGE FOUNDATION FOREIGN-POLICY SCHOLAR KIM HOLMES SAYS 
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN HAS DISCREDITED DEMOCRACY, 
FREE-MARKET IDEAS AND THE UNITED STATES ITSELF IN THE EYES OF THE
RUSSIAN PEOPLE.

                       /// HOLMES ACT ///

         THE CENTRAL FLAW WAS THAT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION 
         MADE THE MISTAKE OF ASSUMING THAT BACKING BORIS YELTSIN 
         PERSONALLY WAS THE SAME THING AS BACKING REFORM AND 
         DEMOCRACY IN PRINCIPLE AND IN PRACTICE. ... WHATEVER 
         BORIS YELTSIN MAY HAVE DONE IN RUSSIA... HE DID  NOT  
         INTRODUCE A WORKABLE FREE MARKET AND DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. HOLMES ALSO SAYS THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND IS  NOT  THE
KEY TO REFORMING THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY.  HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES 
SHOULD STOP "FUNNELING" MONEY THROUGH THE I-M-F INTO RUSSIA.  
INSTEAD, HE WANTS THE UNITED STATES TO USE ITS AID AS LEVERAGE TO
ENCOURAGE MORE U-S-FRIENDLY POLICIES.

FORMER C-I-A DIRECTOR JAMES WOOLSEY, WHO WAS NAMED TO HEAD THE 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY AT THE BEGINNING OF PRESIDENT 
CLINTON'S FIRST TERM IN THE WHITE HOUSE, DID  NOT  EXACTLY LEAP 
TO THE DEFENSE OF HIS FORMER BOSS.  HE SAID THE AMERICAN ROLE IN 
RUSSIA HAS BEEN MIXED AT BEST, BUT HE THOUGHT U-S POLICY BEGAN TO
GO AWRY UNDER THE WATCH OF MR. CLINTON'S PREDECESSOR, GEORGE 
BUSH.  MR. WOOLSEY WAS PARTICULARLY CRITICAL OF BOTH U-S AND 
RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP ON THE ISSUE OF CORRUPTION.

                    /// FIRST WOOLSEY ACT ///

         THERE HAS BEEN FAR TOO LITTLE ATTENTION TO ESTABLISHING 
         THE RULE OF LAW IN RUSSIA, AND FAR TOO MUCH BELIEF THAT 
         ECONOMIC REFORM OR POLITICAL CHUMMINESS (FRIENDLINESS) 
         WOULD LEAD TO THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES THAT NEED TO BE 
         MADE.

                         /// END ACT ///

ALL THE PANELISTS EXPRESSED CONCERNS FOR THE DIRECTION IN WHICH 
RUSSIA IS HEADING.  SOME, LIKE FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY 
WEINBERGER, WARN OF A RETURN TO COMMUNIST-INSPIRED DICTATORSHIP. 
BUT FORMER C-I-A DIRECTOR WOOLSEY FEARS THE COUNTRY MIGHT FALL 
APART, AND HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES DOES  NOT  HAVE MUCH 
LEVERAGE TO PREVENT THAT FROM HAPPENING.

                   /// SECOND WOOLSEY ACT ///

         HOWEVER MUCH WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE SITUATION TODAY, 
         I THINK WE NEED TO FOCUS ESSENTIALLY THE WHOLE EFFORTS 
         OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND THE WEST ON DOING 
         WHAT WE CAN, HOWEVER WEAK OUR HAND, TO SEE THAT WE DON'T
         END UP WITH A COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION AND A TIME OF 
         TROUBLE IN RUSSIA.  HOWEVER BAD IT IS NOW, IT COULD GET 
         WORSE.

                         /// END ACT ///

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MR. WOOLSEY, MOST MEMBERS OF THE 
HERITAGE FOUNDATION PANEL REPRESENT THE CONSERVATIVE END OF THE 
POLITICAL SPECTRUM.  THEY LEAN TOWARD A RATHER UNCOMPROMISING 
POLICY ON RUSSIA, ONE THAT WOULD ENCOURAGE MORE DEMOCRATIC AND 
FREE-MARKET REFORMS, AS WELL AS A MORE WESTERN-FRIENDLY FOREIGN 
POLICY.   (SIGNED)

NEB/CEM/WTW

29-Oct-98 7:21 PM EST (0021 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.