DATE=9/14/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41368
TITLE= RUSSIA'S FUTURE 
BYLINE= KEN SCHWARTZ 
DATELINE= WASHINGTON 
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  AFTER A MONTH OF FLOUNDERING WITH NO GOVERNMENT AND AN 
ECONOMIC FREE-FALL, RUSSIA HAS A NEW PRIME MINISTER.  FORMER 
FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV IS PROMISING TO CHANGE THE 
APPROACH TO ECONOMIC REFORMS AND PROTECT RUSSIANS FROM THE 
FINANCIAL CRISIS.  CORRESPONDENT KEN SCHWARTZ TALKED TO TWO 
EXPERTS WHO BELIEVE RUSSIA HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE FINDING 
ANSWERS TO ITS VAST PROBLEMS.  

TEXT:  WHEN THE SOVIET UNION BROKE UP IN 1991, MILLIONS OF 
RUSSIANS SAW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THEIR LIVES, A FUTURE OF 
FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY.  BUT SEVEN-YEARS OF MARKET 
REFORMS RESULTED IN DISARRAY.  

RUSSIAN EXPERT DIMITRI SIMES, PRESIDENT OF THE NIXON CENTER IN 
WASHINGTON, EXPLAINS WHY.

                       /// SIMES ACT /// 

         FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, WE WERE MISLEAD BY THE RUSSIAN 
         GOVERNMENT, BY THE OLIGARCHS AND BY THE CLINTON 
         ADMINISTRATION ABOUT WHAT WAS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA.  WE 
         WERE TOLD THAT SERIOUS AND REAL DEMOCRATIC REFORMS WERE 
         TAKING PLACE, BUT INSTEAD, THEY WERE ESTABLISHING 
         CAPITALISM WITHOUT CAPITAL, MARKETS WITHOUT REGULATION, 
         AND DEMOCRACY WITHOUT MUCH ATTENTION TO THE POPULAR 
         WILL.

MR. SIMES SAYS HE IS ENCOURAGED BY THE PREMIERSHIP OF YEVGENY 
PRIMAKOV.  HE CALLS HIM AN EXPERIENCED AND CAUTIOUS POLITICIAN 
WHO IS ON GOOD TERMS WITH NEARLY EVERYONE IN POWER IN RUSSIA. 

                       /// SIMES ACT /// 

         HE HAS SOME AUTONOMY FROM BORIS YELTSIN AND HIS 
         ENTOURAGE, SOME AUTONOMY AS FAR AS THE COMMUNISTS IN THE
         DUMA ARE CONCERNED, SOME AUTONOMY FROM THE OLIGARCHS.  I
         THINK THAT THIS IS A MINIMAL REQUIREMENT TO BE ABLE TO 
         MAKE ANY CONSTRUCTIVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE RUSSIAN 
         SITUATION TODAY.

BUT HE SAYS THE FEAR OF SOCIAL UPHEAVAL WILL KEEP MR. PRIMAKOV 
AND RUSSIAN LEGISLATORS FROM MAKING CHANGES THAT SEEM LOGICAL TO 
IMPLEMENT.

                       /// SIMES ACT /// 

         WHEN THEY LOOK AT GROWING STRIKES, WHEN THEY READ THAT 
         MILITARY UNITS ARE INCREASINGLY BUILDING TIES TO 
         REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS AT THE EXPENSE OF LOYALTY TO THE 
         FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, WHEN THEY HEAR ALL THAT, THEY VERY 
         OFTEN FEEL THAT FIRST THINGS SHOULD COME FIRST, AND THEY
         SHOULD DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO AVOID THE WORST, TO AVOID
         A SOCIAL EXPLOSION WITH MOST UNPREDICTABLE CONSEQUENCES.

PROFESSOR OF RUSSIAN HISTORY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, 
DENNIS PARPAZIAN, SAYS ONE OF MR. PRIMAKOV'S BIGGEST CHALLENGES 
WILL BE SHAKING RUSSIA OF THE OLD COMMUNIST MINDSET. 

                     /// PARPAZIAN ACT /// 

         SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS OF THAT HAS PRODUCED A SOCIETY WHICH 
         IN THE OLD TERMINOLOGY WE WOULD CONSIDER BACKWARD IN 
         MANY WAYS.  THE SOCIAL STRUCTURES JUST DID NOT DEVELOP. 
         AND PARTICULARLY, YOU HAVE TO HAVE DIFFERENT GROUPS AND 
         ORGANIZATIONS.  YOU HAVE TO HAVE FREE ASSOCIATIONS.  ALL
         OF THESES THINGS ARE VERY BASIC AND FUNDAMENTAL TO 
         PEOPLE LEARNING HOW TO PRACTICE A DEMOCRATIC FORM OF 
         GOVERNMENT AND TO PRACTICE A REASONABLE ECONOMIC SYSTEM.

PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN BELIEVES WHAT THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE NEED IS AN 
INCENTIVE TO BUILD UP THEIR FINANCIAL AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS. 

                     /// PARPAZIAN ACT /// 

         THERE MUST BE SECURITY OF LIFE AND PROPERTY, SECURITY OF
         LAW BEFORE PEOPLE WILL SAVE IN ADVANCE.  AND THERE IS NO
         REAL SECURITY AND LAW IN RUSSIA, THERE IS NO SECURITY OF
         PROPERTY AND SO WHY SHOULD PEOPLE INVEST.

BUT, PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN SAYS HE HOPES MR. PRIMAKOV CAN BRING A 
CONSISTENCY TO RUSSIA.

                     /// PARPAZIAN ACT /// 

         I THINK THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS POLITICAL AND 
         ECONOMIC STABILITY IN RUSSIA SO THE RUSSIANS CAN TACKLE 
         THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. THEY ARE A BRILLIANT PEOPLE, THEY 
         ARE HARD-WORKING, THEY ARE GOOD-NATURED AND I THINK IF 
         THEY ARE GIVEN HALF A CHANCE BY THE GOVERNING STRUCTURE,
         BY THE ELITE, THEY WILL DO A GOOD JOB OF IT.

NEITHER PROFESSOR PARPAZIAN NOR MR. SIMES ARE WILLING TO MAKE 
FIRM PREDICTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA'S FUTURE.  THEY SAY IT IS A PLACE 
WHERE UNTHINKABLE THINGS SOMETIMES HAPPEN.   (SIGNED)

NEB/KS/RAE

14-Sep-98 1:03 PM EDT (1703 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.