DATE=9/2/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41286
TITLE=RUSSIA / U-S / ARMS
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  PRESIDENTS CLINTON AND YELTSIN HAVE SIGNED TWO ARMS 
CONTROL AGREEMENTS THEY SAY WILL MAKE THIS A SAFER WORLD.  BUT AS
V-O-A MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN REPORTS, THE DEALS  
REPRESENT FAR LESS THAN WHAT THE TWO COUNTRIES HAD HOPED FOR WHEN
THE SUMMIT WAS PLANNED.

TEXT:  THIS WAS TO HAVE BEEN AN ARMS CONTROL SUMMIT.  THERE WAS 
EVEN A FAINT HOPE A FEW MONTHS AGO THAT RUSSIA'S RELUCTANT DUMA, 
THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, MIGHT BE PERSUADED TO RATIFY THE 
START-TWO ARMS REDUCTION TREATY. 

BUT BY THE TIME PRESIDENT CLINTON ARRIVED IN MOSCOW, THAT HOPE 
HAD BEEN DASHED.  RUSSIA IS WITHOUT A GOVERNMENT.  PRESIDENT 
YELTSIN IS POLITICALLY AND PHYSICALLY WEAKENED.  AND THE DUMA IS 
IN OPEN REVOLT.

ANALYST SERGEI KOLMAKOV OF THE FOND POLITIKA RESEARCH INSTITUTION
SAYS THAT IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS  NO  CHANCE THE 
DUMA WILL CONSIDER ARMS CONTROL TREATIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

                     ///  KOLMAKOV ACT  ///

         DURING THE PRESENT CRISIS IN RUSSIA, THE STATE DUMA HAS 
         NO  INTENTION TO RATIFY THE START-TWO AGREEMENT.  IT 
         SEEMS TO ME EFFORTS OF THE LEADERS OF THE LOWER HOUSE OF
         PARLIAMENT ARE CONCENTRATED ON TOPICS OF BATTLE FOR 
         POWER WITH THE PRESIDENT.

                        ///  END ACT  ///

WITH DUMA COOPERATION RULED OUT, THE TWO NATIONS SETTLED ON TWO 
MEASURES THAT WILL  NOT  REQUIRE RATIFICATION.

ONE SPELLS OUT WAYS FOR EACH COUNTRY TO DISPOSE OF 50 TONS OF 
DEADLY PLUTONIUM LEFT OVER FROM NUCLEAR STOCKPILES. THE OTHER 
CALLS FOR SHARING INFORMATION ABOUT BALLISTIC MISSILE AND SPACE 
ROCKET LAUNCHES, IN HOPES OF REDUCING THE DANGER OF AN ACCIDENTAL
NUCLEAR EXCHANGE.

ARNOLD HORELICK OF THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR PEACE SAYS THE 
INFORMATION SHARING DEAL IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AT A TIME WHEN 
RUSSIA'S EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IS DETERIORATING.

                     ///  HORELICK ACT  ///

         I THINK IT HELPS GIVE SOME REASSURANCE TO RUSSIA GIVEN 
         THE DETERIORATION OF THE GROUND-BASED EARLY WARNING 
         RUSSIAN SYSTEM WHICH HAS VERY BIG HOLES IN IT AND MAKES 
         THEM NERVOUS.  AND IN A WAY IT GIVES THE U-S, THE UNITED
         STATES, A REASSURANCE.  IT PROVIDES A LITTLE BIT MORE 
         CONFIDENCE ABOUT  NOT  EXPERIENCING ACCIDENTAL LAUNCHES 
         ON THE RUSSIAN SIDE. 

                        ///  END ACT  ///

///  OPT  ///   MR. HORELICK RECALLED AN INCIDENT IN 1995 WHEN 
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WENT ON ALERT AFTER MISINTERPRETING A 
NORWEGIAN SCIENTIFIC ROCKET LAUNCH FOR A SUBMARINE MISSILE 
ATTACK.    ///  END OPT  ///

BUT MR. HORELICK SAYS WHILE OTHER ACCORDS SIGNED AT THE SUMMIT 
ARE MARKS OF PROGRESS IN THE U-S / RUSSIA STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP,
THEY FALL FAR SHORT OF EARLIER EXPECTATIONS.

                   ///  2ND HORELICK ACT  ///

         GIVEN THAT THIS SUMMIT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A SUMMIT THAT 
         WOULD MARK RATIFICATION OF START-TWO, AND TO MOVE ON TO 
         START-THREE, WHICH WOULD HAVE BOTH SIDES NEGOTIATE VERY 
         DEEP CUTS IN THEIR ARSENALS, THESE TWO AGREEMENTS THAT 
         WERE ACTUALLY SIGNED ARE RELATIVELY SMALL POTATOES 
         COMPARED TO A MUCH LARGER SET OF ISSUES STILL UNRESOLVED
         AND WAITING FOR DUMA RATIFICATION OF THE START TWO 
         TREATY.

                        ///  END ACT  ///

MR. HORELICK SAYS THIS JUST CONCLUDED SUMMIT CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES
THAT, WITH RUSSIA IN FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL TURMOIL, ARMS 
CONTROL HAS LOST ITS PLACE AS THE CENTRAL ISSUE OF RELATIONS 
BETWEEN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON.  (SIGNED)

NEB/PFH/JWH/PLM

02-Sep-98 1:37 PM EDT (1737 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.