DATE=8/30/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41263
TITLE=RUSSIA SUMMIT 
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  RUSSIA'S FINANCIAL CRISIS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSHADOW 
PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S TWO DAYS OF TALKS THIS WEEK WITH 
PRESIDENT CLINTON.  MOSCOW CORRESPONDENT PETER HEINLEIN PREVIEWS 
A SUMMIT THAT BRINGS TOGETHER TWO LEADERS STRUGGLING TO SHAKE OFF
INCREASING DOMESTIC PRESSURES.
 
TEXT:  IT IS BEING PRIVATELY REFERRED TO AS "THE SILLY SUMMIT".  
AT A PRE-SUMMIT BRIEFING FOR REPORTERS, SEVERAL ANALYSTS 
QUESTIONED THE LOGIC OF A MEETING BETWEEN TWO WEAKENED PRESIDENTS
AT THIS TIME OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN RUSSIA.
 
THE SUMMIT THAT BEGINS TUESDAY IS THE LATEST IN A LONG SERIES OF 
MEETINGS BETWEEN LEADERS FROM WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW.  DURING THE 
SOVIET PERIOD, THESE SO-CALLED "SUPERPOWER SUMMITS" WERE AIMED AT
REDUCING COLD WAR TENSIONS.  MORE RECENTLY, THEY HAVE FOCUSED ON 
ARMS CONTROL. 

THE HEAD OF MOSCOW'S U-S-A/CANADA INSTITUTE, SERGEI ROGOV, SAYS 
THIS MEETING WILL BE DIFFERENT.

                        /// ROGOV ACT ///

         THIS ONE IS GOING TO BE A VERY UNUSUAL SUMMIT, BECAUSE 
         FOR THE FIRST TIME THE AGENDA IS DOMINATED NOT BY 
         STRATEGIC QUESTIONS AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL, POLITICAL 
         ISSUES LIKE REGIONAL CONFLICTS.  THE REAL MEANING OF 
         THIS SUMMIT IS RELATED TO THE ECONOMIC SITUATION, AND 
         THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COLLAPSE OF RUSSIA,WHICH 
         CREATED A VERY ASYMMETRICAL SITUATION IN THE 
         RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS.

                         /// END ACT/ //

MR. ROGOV SAYS AT THIS SUMMIT, DOMESTIC POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES 
FACING BOTH PRESIDENTS WILL MAKE MEANINGFUL AGREEMENTS ALMOST 
IMPOSSIBLE.

                      /// 2ND ROGOV ACT ///

         BOTH OF THEM ARE LAME DUCKS, BOTH OF THEM FACE 
         TREMENDOUS CREDIBILITY CRISES AT HOME, AND IF FOR 
         INSTANCE THERE IS A BREAKTHROUGH, AND I DOUBT THAT, AND 
         THEY DECIDED TO SIGN SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT, IT IS 
         UNLIKELY THEY WILL GET THAT RATIFIED EITHER BY THE DUMA 
         OR THE U-S CONGRESS.

                         /// END ACT ///

MR. ROGOV SAYS THIS IS A PARTICULARLY BAD TIME FOR A SUMMIT 
BECAUSE AFTER THE EVENTS OF THE PAST WEEK, THERE IS CONFUSION 
ABOUT THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DIRECTION RUSSIA WILL TAKE.

                      /// 3RD ROGOV ACT ///

         IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SPECULATE WHAT RUSSIA WANTS 
         BECAUSE THE QUESTION IS, WHICH RUSSIA.  BASICALLY, 
         RUSSIA WANTS STABILITY.  RUSSIA WANTS TO AVOID FREE 
         FALL, WHICH WE ALREADY EXPERIENCED IN THIS DECADE, WHICH
         THREATENS US AGAIN. AND RUSSIA WANTS TO AVOID THE 
         HUMILIATING EXPERIENCE WHEN ITS ECONOMIC DEPENDENCE 
         COULD BE USED TO DICTATE CERTAIN CHANGES IN RUSSIAN 
         FOREIGN POLICY.

                         /// END ACT ///

U-S DIPLOMATS SAY PRESIDENT CLINTON WILL SPEND SEVERAL HOURS IN 
TALKS WITH THE RUSSIAN LEADER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BUT IN A 
SIGN OF RUSSIA'S SHIFTING POLITICAL POWER EQUATION, THE PRESIDENT
WILL ALSO MEET A NUMBER OF OTHER PROMINENT POLITICAL FIGURES, 
INCLUDING THE FOUR MEN CONSIDERED THE LEADING CONTENDERS TO BE 
MR. YELTSIN'S SUCCESSOR.   (SIGNED)

NEB/PFH/DW/RAE

30-Aug-98 12:31 PM EDT (1631 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.